538 Presidential Model 2024. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency We implement this test using probabilistic forecasts for competitive states in the 2020 us presidential election and congressional elections in 2020 and 2022, using.
Data for fivethirtyeight’s previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 republican primary averages is available for download here. How 538 is adjusting our election model for harris versus trump.